SaaStr: growth slows below $1B ARR as NRR decides who keeps growing
Summary
In a November 12, 2026 post, SaaStr's Jason Lemkin argues $1B in revenue is the new scale line for public B2B companies. Median public SaaS growth fell from 14.0% in Q4 2025 to 11.8% by Q2 2026. In his group of ten sub-$1B companies, every one growing above 20% had NRR of 105% or higher; every one growing 10% or less was at 102% or below.
TopCloserR Perspective
The takeaway
Net revenue retention now separates growing software companies from stalled ones, and new logos are harder to win as buyers move budget to AI-native tools. Expansion and renewals carry more of the number.
Who gets the most from this
- In the role
- New-logo deals face larger buying committees, C-suite and board approvals and longer sales cycles, as HubSpot described.
- Aspiring
- Reps weighing their next job at a public software company. — A company's growth rate and NRR tell you a lot about how hard your quota will be.
- In the role
- Below 100% NRR, the base shrinks every year, so your expansion work decides whether the company grows.
- Aspiring
- Support and onboarding staff moving into account roles. — Learn expansion selling. That's where the growth math is decided.
Put it to work
- Check NRR before you take an offerAccount Executive
Look up the company's reported growth and retention, or ask the hiring manager directly.
- Multithread new-logo deals earlyAccount Executive
Plan for executive and board sign-off from the first meeting, not at the end.
- Build an expansion plan for your top accountsCustomer Success Manager
Find where customers get more value than they pay for, and bring a plan to the next business review.
Recommendations
More SaaS & B2B Sales news